The Derivative Delusion: What Derivatives Were Built For vs. What CT Thinks They Are
Feb 20, 2026On the difference between speculation and structure...
Writing
Research and essays on prediction markets, data, and systems.
AI Agents as Market Participants
Feb 20, 2026When Bots Become the Dominant Forecasters...
The Almighty Dollar: How prices know what you don't
Feb 16, 2026On the miracle of knowledge aggregation that nobody appreciates....
The 1% problem
Feb 16, 2026Who actually profits on Polymarket...
Can prediction markets save science?
Feb 16, 2026The Reproducibility Crisis...
The 124x Generalist Advantage
Feb 15, 2026Why Prediction Market Specialists Underperform...
Prediction Markets as Cognitive Prosthetics
Feb 13, 2026Augmenting Human Judgment at Scale...
The Whale Paradox
Feb 12, 2026242,611 traders, 2.68 million positions on Polymarket....
Nothing ever happens
Feb 12, 2026Why 72% of prediction market contracts resolve to NO; first analysed on 161,638 contracts across polymarket and kalshi, then extended to 1.77 million ...
How prediction markets win
Jan 7, 2026If they win....
Why do we predict?
Jan 7, 2026The brain's native business model....
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